Climate Change as a Driver of Conflict and Disorder in Modern Nations – The Case of Australia

Author: Shaun Deverson

When we think of the combined phrases ‘climate change’ and ‘conflict’, for many the automatic thought and perception is that this coupling is solely reserved for the developing world. In fact, the opposite can be very true and real. Climate change is not a distant threat but a present and compounding risk to national stability, particularly in advanced economies like Australia. While the direct effects – rising temperatures, bushfires, floods, droughts – are visible and well-documented, it is the second- and third-order consequences that pose more insidious risks to social cohesion, economic stability, and political order. This article explores how repeated natural disasters and ecological crises, intensified by climate change, lead to cascading effects such as supply chain disruptions, job losses, rising inequality, and civil unrest, thereby increasing the risk of domestic conflict and social disorder.

1. Climate Change as a Systemic Threat

Historically, climate change has been framed as an environmental or scientific issue. Increasingly, however, it is being recognised as a “threat multiplier” – a force that exacerbates existing economic, social, and political tensions. Australia, while relatively wealthy and politically stable, is not immune. In fact, its geographic exposure to extreme weather events, reliance on global trade, and internal socioeconomic inequalities make it particularly vulnerable to the compounding risks posed by climate change.

Australia has already experienced significant climate-related disruptions:

• Bushfires (e.g., Black Summer 2019–2020): Over 24 million hectares burned, more than 3,000 homes destroyed, and 33 lives lost. The economic cost exceeded AUD 100 billion.
• Flooding (e.g., East Coast 2022): Record rainfall inundated communities across Queensland and New South Wales, displacing tens of thousands and damaging critical infrastructure.
• Heatwaves and Droughts: Water scarcity and agricultural loss have become increasingly common, particularly in regional communities.
• Toxic algal blooms: Increased ocean temperatures and nutrient loads has seen a widespread and deadly toxic algal bloom persisting off the South Australian coast. In what has been termed as an ‘underwater bushfire’ such is the spread of devastation to marine life, it is already posing direct and lingering impacts for the local seafood and tourism industries.

These events are not isolated. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) projects that such extreme events will become more frequent and intense, with cascading consequences.

2. Second-Order Effects: Economic and Social Disruption

a. Supply Chain Disruptions

Australia is deeply integrated into global supply chains, and climate disruptions can severely impair the flow of goods and services. For example:

• Transport Infrastructure Damage: Floods and fires damage roads, railways, and ports, delaying freight and increasing costs.
• Agricultural Loss: Crop failures due to heatwaves and water shortages reduce exports and increase domestic food prices.
• Global Interdependence: Climate impacts in trading partners (e.g., in Southeast Asia) can affect Australian imports of essential goods such as pharmaceuticals, machinery, and electronics.

These disruptions can lead to inflation, production halts, and job losses in affected sectors.

b. Labour Market Instability

Natural disasters displace workers and destroy places of employment. Rebuilding efforts can temporarily create jobs but often fail to provide long-term economic security:

• Tourism Decline: Extreme weather events reduce international and domestic tourism, a key employer in many regional areas.
• Agricultural Employment: Droughts and flooding reduce rural employment opportunities, accelerating migration to cities and putting pressure on urban infrastructure.
• Casualisation of Work: Industries affected by climate instability often shift toward short-term or contract-based employment to reduce risk exposure, increasing worker insecurity.
• Job loss: further from the casualisation of the workforce, industries could be forced to lay off workers entirely as insolvency rates increase due to cascading climate change impacts exposing issues such as a lack of preparedness, lack of economic diversity and lack of an adaptable strategy, to highlight just a few.

c. Housing and Cost-of-Living Pressure

As natural disasters destroy homes and communities, the cost of insurance, construction, and housing increases. In flood-prone areas, many homes become uninsurable. This results in:

• Forced Resettlement: People are pushed out of affected areas, leading to population pressure and housing shortages in cities.
• Widening Inequality: Low-income communities are disproportionately affected, lacking the resources to rebuild or relocate.
• Loss of Community Cohesion: Displacement and financial stress fracture social bonds, leading to feelings of abandonment and distrust in government institutions.

3. Third-Order Effects: Social Disorder and Conflict

The combination of economic strain, social fragmentation, and perceived government failure can lead to increasing levels of civil unrest and even violence. Some potential pathways include:

a. Crime and Anti-Social Behaviour

Research (1) shows a correlation between heatwaves, rising mental health issues and increased rates of assault, theft, and domestic violence. More broadly:

• Youth Disengagement: Economic hardship and lack of opportunity can push vulnerable youth toward criminal activity or gang involvement.
• Substance Abuse: Trauma from displacement and disaster can increase mental health issues and addiction rates, further straining community resources.
• Violence: The link between heat exposure and violence has been studied for a very long time. It has been consistently observed that high ambient temperatures can elevate aggressive or violent behaviours of individuals towards others (1).

b. Erosion of Trust in Institutions

When disaster responses are seen as slow, unfair, or poorly coordinated, public trust declines:

• Mistrust in Government: Communities that feel neglected by relief and recovery efforts may turn against political leaders, leading to protest movements.
• Polarisation and Scapegoating: Climate impacts can exacerbate social divisions, with minority groups or migrants being unfairly blamed for economic or environmental problems.
• Information Disorder: Disinformation and conspiracy theories can flourish during crises, especially when government messaging is inconsistent or overly technical.

c. Urban Conflict and Protest

Increased inequality, housing pressure, and loss of opportunity can converge in urban centres:

• Protests Against Injustice: As climate disasters disproportionately affect poorer Australians, protests against inequality, environmental degradation, and government inaction may become more frequent and intense.
• Climate-Driven Migration Conflicts: Rising climate migration, both internal (from regional areas to cities) and external (from the Pacific Islands), could strain social services and foster xenophobia or resource competition. Much of this has already been seen in places such as the United States and Germany.

Case Example: Western Sydney – A Climate Pressure Cooker

Western Sydney represents a perfect storm of climate vulnerability and social stress. It is one of the hottest urban regions in Australia, has high levels of socioeconomic disadvantage, and a dense multicultural population. During extreme heat events:

• Schools and public services strain under demand.
• Energy usage spikes, but not all residents can afford air conditioning.
• Low-quality housing exacerbates health risks.

Simultaneously, rising housing costs and insecure employment generate resentment. Without proactive investment in adaptation, infrastructure, and community engagement, regions like Western Sydney could become flashpoints for future disorder.

Lessons from the Pandemic: Behaviour Under Pressure

The COVID-19 pandemic offered a sobering preview of how systemic disruption can trigger a breakdown in social norms and cooperative behaviour. In the early stages of the crisis, panic buying and hoarding of essential goods – such as toilet paper, medical supplies, and food staples – revealed how quickly fear and uncertainty can override collective responsibility. Despite widespread messaging about solidarity and resilience, the crisis exposed underlying vulnerabilities in social cohesion and trust.

Climate-related disruptions, particularly when they affect access to water, food, fuel, or healthcare, could provoke similar reactions, especially if government responses are perceived as slow or inequitable. The lesson is clear: disorder in the system doesn’t just test infrastructure – it tests character. Without proactive investment in communication, preparedness, and community trust, even highly developed societies may revert to self-preservation behaviours that undermine social stability and exacerbate existing inequalities during climate crises.

4. Mental Health: The Crocodile Near the Canoe

As intimated above, underlying many of the cascading consequences of climate change is a growing, often underacknowledged mental health crisis. Climate events – whether sudden disasters like bushfires and floods, or slower-moving threats such as drought – leave deep psychological scars on individuals and communities. First responders and emergency workers routinely face cumulative trauma, while affected residents experience grief, displacement anxiety, survivor’s guilt, and post-traumatic stress. Indirectly, climate-related job losses, loss of homes, or the steady erosion of services due to diverted resources can create a pervasive sense of hopelessness, particularly in already vulnerable populations. Young people, in particular, are reporting rising levels of “climate anxiety” – a chronic fear of ecological doom that can affect decision-making, identity, and life choices.

As the impacts of climate change grow more frequent and disruptive, mental health risks are increasingly the “crocodile near the canoe” – close, quiet, and potentially lethal if overlooked. Addressing these invisible wounds is essential not only for individual well-being but for maintaining the social fabric and resilience of communities.

5. Policy Recommendations

To prevent climate impacts from escalating into social conflict, modern nations like Australia must adopt a systemic and preventive approach:

1. Integrated Risk Assessment: Governments should map climate risks alongside social and economic vulnerabilities to identify high-risk communities.
2. Investment in Resilience: Build infrastructure that withstands extreme weather and ensures continuity of essential services.
3. Strengthen Social Safety Nets: Ensure disaster relief, unemployment benefits, and mental health services are accessible and well-funded.
4. Community Engagement and Inclusion: Involve local communities in adaptation planning to build trust and shared ownership of solutions.
5. Climate-Responsive Urban Planning: Prioritise green spaces, heat mitigation strategies, and affordable housing in at-risk areas.
6. National Security Integration: Treat climate resilience as a core pillar of national security policy and include it in defence, policing, and emergency planning.
7. National ‘Hopefulness’ Leadership: In the face of these challenges, we need a strong, collective sense of hope. As Nick Cave, Australian singer and songwriter, so eloquently put recently as a response to a personal letter to him describing a person’s anger and cynicism with the world, responded by stating how hope is not just an optimistic outlook, but a powerful force that can be cultivated through acts of love and resilience in the face of life’s challenges, something that he had learnt through the loss of his child. Cave’s experience led him to believe that the world, despite its flaws, is worth defending and believing in. Ultimately, hopefulness is an adversarial emotion, not a neutral one, and a warrior emotion that can defeat cynicism. “Hopefulness puts demands on us”. See the full video here – https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cFM4GVl-WqI .

Conclusion

Climate change is not merely an environmental challenge – it is a systemic threat to modern societies. In countries like Australia, the compounding effects of natural disasters, economic disruption, and social fragmentation can create fertile ground for civil unrest, crime, and political destabilisation. Understanding these linkages and responding proactively is critical not only for climate adaptation, but for safeguarding social cohesion and democratic stability in the years ahead.

References:

1. ‘Heat exposure and mental health in the context of climate change’ https://doi.org/10.1016/C2018-0-04951-